2026 World Cup
The model's World Cup
Exact-scoreline picks for all 72 group fixtures, title and advancement odds for every nation, projected group tables, and squads — from a calibrated Dixon-Coles core with squad-talent and travel-fatigue covariates, over 20,000 simulated tournaments.
Features: host ×0.33 + squad talent (FC26) + 2026 travel fatigue. Generated 2026-06-03. The PICK maximises expected pool points under 4/3/2 scoring (exact / goal-diff / tendency).
Title & advancement odds
20,000 simulated tournaments · pre-tournament| Team | Champ | Final | Semi | Quarter | R16 | Advance | Mkt · Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArgentinaJ | 24.9 | 34.4 | 47.8 | 61.1 | 73.4 | 98.6 | 8.9 +16.0 |
| FranceI | 14.6 | 24.2 | 35.7 | 49.1 | 72.8 | 94.2 | 17.1 -2.4 |
| SpainH | 8.1 | 17.1 | 32.7 | 48.7 | 71.6 | 99.5 | 16.0 -7.8 |
| EnglandL | 5.9 | 11.2 | 23.2 | 40.0 | 67.0 | 96.9 | 11.5 -5.6 |
| BrazilC | 4.9 | 10.1 | 20.3 | 39.6 | 58.4 | 98.2 | 8.3 -3.4 |
| NorwayI | 4.7 | 10.0 | 18.4 | 30.9 | 56.1 | 85.4 | 2.5 +2.2 |
| MoroccoC | 4.2 | 8.8 | 17.3 | 36.3 | 53.4 | 94.6 | 1.6 +2.6 |
| GermanyE | 3.7 | 9.1 | 16.7 | 27.9 | 62.9 | 97.9 | 5.5 -1.8 |
| SwitzerlandB | 3.6 | 7.6 | 14.8 | 37.0 | 64.8 | 98.6 | 0.9 +2.7 |
| PortugalK | 3.1 | 7.2 | 16.1 | 35.4 | 66.4 | 94.1 | 9.6 -6.4 |
| NetherlandsF | 3.0 | 7.1 | 14.5 | 33.7 | 47.6 | 89.7 | 4.0 -1.0 |
| JapanF | 2.6 | 6.3 | 13.3 | 29.3 | 43.7 | 84.4 | 1.8 +0.9 |
| MexicoA | 2.1 | 4.5 | 10.6 | 24.2 | 52.7 | 88.7 | 1.1 +1.0 |
| BelgiumG | 2.0 | 6.1 | 14.4 | 31.7 | 59.0 | 91.3 | 1.9 +0.1 |
| SenegalI | 1.9 | 4.5 | 9.8 | 20.2 | 42.9 | 75.9 | 0.7 +1.2 |
| EcuadorE | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.5 | 17.8 | 45.1 | 91.5 | 0.9 +0.6 |
| UruguayH | 1.4 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 90.7 | 1.1 +0.3 |
| EgyptG | 1.0 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 18.0 | 40.8 | 77.6 | 0.3 +0.8 |
| ColombiaK | 0.9 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 22.4 | 52.4 | 88.1 | 1.8 -0.9 |
| ParaguayD | 0.9 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 16.2 | 39.9 | 72.4 | 0.3 +0.6 |
| IranG | 0.9 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 17.5 | 40.5 | 78.5 | 0.1 +0.7 |
| AustraliaD | 0.7 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 14.5 | 38.5 | 72.9 | 0.1 +0.6 |
| South KoreaA | 0.7 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 16.2 | 44.0 | 83.5 | 0.3 +0.4 |
| CroatiaL | 0.6 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 17.9 | 43.8 | 85.8 | 0.9 -0.2 |
| TurkeyD | 0.6 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 15.4 | 41.4 | 76.4 | 1.1 -0.5 |
| Ivory CoastE | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 11.1 | 34.3 | 83.9 | 0.4 +0.1 |
| AustriaJ | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 10.2 | 24.6 | 78.1 | 0.5 -0.2 |
| CanadaB | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 12.1 | 41.4 | 86.1 | 0.4 -0.1 |
| SwedenF | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 14.9 | 47.3 | 0.5 -0.4 |
| ScotlandC | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 20.1 | 71.4 | 0.3 -0.1 |
| TunisiaF | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 14.3 | 47.5 | 0.1 +0.1 |
| United StatesD | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 18.8 | 52.9 | 1.1 -1.1 |
| AlgeriaJ | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 12.9 | 57.5 | 0.1 -0.1 |
| UzbekistanK | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 13.4 | 40.8 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| Czech RepublicA | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 18.4 | 62.7 | 0.3 -0.2 |
| DR CongoK | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 10.8 | 36.7 | — |
| Saudi ArabiaH | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 30.6 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| PanamaL | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 35.3 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| IraqI | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 16.2 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| South AfricaA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 37.4 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| Cape VerdeH | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 27.0 | 0.1 -0.0 |
| GhanaL | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 10.9 | 45.3 | 0.3 -0.3 |
| New ZealandG | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 22.7 | 0.1 -0.1 |
| JordanJ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 28.6 | 0.1 -0.1 |
| Bosnia and HerzegovinaB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 36.8 | 0.3 -0.3 |
| QatarB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 36.8 | 0.1 -0.1 |
| HaitiC | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 0.1 -0.1 |
| CuraçaoE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 0.1 -0.1 |
Columns are the share of simulations in which a team reaches that stage. Mkt is the live Polymarket champion price; edge = model − market (positive in green = the model says the market underprices the team).
Projected group standings
model projection · pre-tournamentExpected points and goal difference summed across each team's three group fixtures (from the per-match win/draw/loss and xG). Win-group and advance are the share of simulated tournaments. As real results land the same derivation tracks the live table.
Group A
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mexico | 5.46 | +1.94 | 45.3 | 88.7 |
| 2South Korea | 4.82 | +1.16 | 33.6 | 83.5 |
| 3Czech Republic | 3.59 | -0.73 | 15.4 | 62.7 |
| 4South Africa | 2.39 | -2.37 | 5.8 | 37.4 |
Group B
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Switzerland | 7.01 | +5.17 | 72.9 | 98.6 |
| 2Canada | 4.99 | +1.30 | 22.2 | 86.1 |
| 3Qatar | 2.37 | -3.43 | 2.7 | 36.8 |
| 4Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.30 | -3.04 | 2.3 | 36.8 |
Group C
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brazil | 6.40 | +4.58 | 56.8 | 98.2 |
| 2Morocco | 5.72 | +2.61 | 34.6 | 94.6 |
| 3Scotland | 3.68 | -0.49 | 8.3 | 71.4 |
| 4Haiti | 0.92 | -6.70 | 0.3 | 8.1 |
Group D
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Turkey | 4.50 | +0.68 | 32.7 | 76.4 |
| 2Australia | 4.26 | +0.35 | 27.1 | 72.9 |
| 3Paraguay | 4.26 | +0.29 | 26.2 | 72.4 |
| 4United States | 3.15 | -1.32 | 14.0 | 52.9 |
Group E
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Germany | 6.13 | +4.21 | 53.9 | 97.9 |
| 2Ecuador | 5.24 | +1.78 | 28.8 | 91.5 |
| 3Ivory Coast | 4.40 | +0.78 | 17.0 | 83.9 |
| 4Curaçao | 0.72 | -6.77 | 0.2 | 5.0 |
Group F
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Netherlands | 5.55 | +2.25 | 47.8 | 89.7 |
| 2Japan | 4.96 | +1.26 | 34.8 | 84.4 |
| 3Tunisia | 2.88 | -1.54 | 8.2 | 47.5 |
| 4Sweden | 2.88 | -1.97 | 9.3 | 47.3 |
Group G
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Belgium | 5.69 | +2.26 | 49.9 | 91.3 |
| 2Iran | 4.49 | +0.59 | 25.4 | 78.5 |
| 3Egypt | 4.33 | +0.39 | 22.0 | 77.6 |
| 4New Zealand | 1.80 | -3.24 | 2.7 | 22.7 |
Group H
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 7.34 | +5.87 | 77.9 | 99.5 |
| 2Uruguay | 5.23 | +1.56 | 20.1 | 90.7 |
| 3Saudi Arabia | 2.11 | -3.57 | 1.0 | 30.6 |
| 4Cape Verde | 1.99 | -3.86 | 1.0 | 27.0 |
Group I
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 5.97 | +2.81 | 51.0 | 94.2 |
| 2Norway | 4.92 | +1.23 | 29.8 | 85.4 |
| 3Senegal | 4.18 | +0.15 | 17.8 | 75.9 |
| 4Iraq | 1.44 | -4.19 | 1.4 | 16.2 |
Group J
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentina | 7.14 | +4.83 | 77.5 | 98.6 |
| 2Austria | 4.29 | +0.32 | 13.7 | 78.1 |
| 3Algeria | 3.20 | -1.27 | 7.0 | 57.5 |
| 4Jordan | 1.97 | -3.88 | 1.9 | 28.6 |
Group K
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 6.01 | +2.73 | 55.1 | 94.1 |
| 2Colombia | 5.27 | +1.61 | 35.7 | 88.1 |
| 3Uzbekistan | 2.56 | -2.12 | 5.1 | 40.8 |
| 4DR Congo | 2.37 | -2.22 | 4.1 | 36.7 |
Group L
| Team | xPts | xGD | Win grp | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1England | 6.61 | +3.73 | 65.0 | 96.9 |
| 2Croatia | 4.93 | +1.28 | 26.6 | 85.8 |
| 3Ghana | 2.69 | -2.12 | 5.0 | 45.3 |
| 4Panama | 2.27 | -2.89 | 3.5 | 35.3 |
Group-stage score sheet
The pick diverges from the single most-likely score (modal) when a central score banks more across the scoring tiers. Bars show win / draw / loss. Tap a fixture for the full breakdown.
Group A
Mexico1-0South Africa
xg 1.44–0.6655/29/16Mexico City
1-0 16%0-0 13%1-1 13%
South Korea1-0Czech Republic
xg 1.33–1.1639/30/31Guadalajaramodal 1-1
1-1 14%1-0 10%0-0 10%
Czech Republic1-0South Africa
xg 1.38–0.9546/30/24Atlantamodal 1-1
1-1 14%1-0 12%0-0 11%
Mexico1-1South Korea
xg 1.15–0.9838/32/29Guadalajara
1-1 15%0-0 13%1-0 12%
Czech Republic0-1Mexico
xg 0.71–1.7014/26/60Mexico City
0-1 14%0-2 13%1-1 12%
South Africa0-1South Korea
xg 0.67–1.8312/24/64Monterrey
0-1 14%0-2 14%1-1 11%
Group B
Canada1-0Bosnia and Herzegovina
xg 1.53–0.7156/28/16Toronto
1-0 15%1-1 13%2-0 12%
Qatar0-2Switzerland
xg 0.67–3.125/11/84San Francisco Bay Areamodal 0-3
0-3 11%0-2 11%0-4 9%
Switzerland2-0Bosnia and Herzegovina
xg 2.61–0.5481/14/5Los Angeles
2-0 15%3-0 13%1-0 11%
Canada1-0Qatar
xg 1.96–0.8363/23/14Vancouvermodal 2-0
2-0 12%1-0 11%1-1 11%
Switzerland1-0Canada
xg 1.54–0.8951/28/21Vancouvermodal 1-1
1-1 13%1-0 12%2-0 10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0-1Qatar
xg 1.22–1.3732/29/39Seattlemodal 1-1
1-1 14%0-1 9%0-0 9%
Group C
Haiti0-2Scotland
xg 0.81–2.2411/20/69Boston
0-2 12%0-1 10%1-2 10%
Brazil0-0Morocco
xg 0.94–0.8535/36/30New York New Jersey
0-0 18%1-1 15%1-0 14%
Brazil3-0Haiti
xg 3.78–0.5292/6/2Philadelphia
3-0 12%4-0 12%2-0 10%
Scotland0-1Morocco
xg 0.58–1.2716/32/52Boston
0-1 19%0-0 17%1-1 13%
Scotland0-1Brazil
xg 0.77–2.0013/22/65Miamimodal 0-2
0-2 13%0-1 12%1-1 11%
Morocco2-0Haiti
xg 2.40–0.3981/15/4Atlanta
2-0 18%1-0 14%3-0 14%
Group D
United States1-1Paraguay
xg 0.95–1.1429/33/39Los Angeles
1-1 15%0-0 14%0-1 13%
Australia1-1Turkey
xg 1.16–1.2233/30/36Vancouver
1-1 14%0-0 11%0-1 10%
Turkey1-1Paraguay
xg 1.05–1.0933/32/35San Francisco Bay Area
1-1 15%0-0 13%0-1 11%
United States0-1Australia
xg 0.95–1.4224/29/47Seattlemodal 1-1
1-1 14%0-1 12%0-0 11%
Turkey2-1United States
xg 1.83–1.1752/25/23Los Angelesmodal 1-1
1-1 12%2-1 10%2-0 8%
Paraguay0-0Australia
xg 0.88–0.8234/37/30San Francisco Bay Area
0-0 20%1-0 15%1-1 15%
Group E
Ivory Coast0-0Ecuador
xg 0.46–0.8218/41/40Philadelphia
0-0 29%0-1 22%1-0 12%
Germany3-0Curaçao
xg 3.89–0.4693/5/1Houston
3-0 13%4-0 12%2-0 10%
Germany1-0Ivory Coast
xg 1.41–0.8649/30/22Torontomodal 1-1
1-1 14%1-0 13%0-0 12%
Ecuador1-0Curaçao
xg 1.94–0.2977/19/4Kansas City
1-0 20%2-0 20%3-0 13%
Curaçao0-2Ivory Coast
xg 0.40–2.095/18/77Philadelphia
0-2 18%0-1 17%0-3 13%
Ecuador0-0Germany
xg 0.79–1.0226/35/39New York New Jersey
0-0 18%0-1 15%1-1 15%
Group F
Netherlands1-1Japan
xg 1.20–1.1436/31/33Dallas
1-1 15%0-0 11%1-0 10%
Sweden1-1Tunisia
xg 1.14–1.0636/32/32Monterrey
1-1 15%0-0 12%1-0 11%
Netherlands2-1Sweden
xg 2.33–1.0565/20/15Houston
2-1 10%2-0 9%1-1 9%
Tunisia0-1Japan
xg 0.59–1.1418/34/48Monterrey
0-1 19%0-0 19%1-1 13%
Japan1-0Sweden
xg 1.69–0.9254/26/19Dallasmodal 1-1
1-1 13%1-0 11%2-0 11%
Tunisia0-1Netherlands
xg 0.67–1.5815/27/58Kansas City
0-1 16%0-2 13%1-1 12%
Group G
Iran1-0New Zealand
xg 1.56–0.6060/27/13Los Angeles
1-0 17%2-0 14%0-0 13%
Belgium1-0Egypt
xg 1.29–0.7349/32/20Seattle
1-0 16%0-0 15%1-1 14%
Belgium1-0Iran
xg 1.37–1.0643/30/28Los Angelesmodal 1-1
1-1 14%1-0 11%0-0 10%
New Zealand0-1Egypt
xg 0.45–1.3412/30/58Vancouver
0-1 21%0-0 18%0-2 15%
Egypt0-0Iran
xg 0.93–0.8734/35/31Seattle
0-0 18%1-1 15%1-0 14%
New Zealand0-1Belgium
xg 0.56–1.959/21/70Vancouvermodal 0-2
0-2 16%0-1 15%0-3 10%
Group H
Saudi Arabia0-1Uruguay
xg 0.41–1.4210/29/62Miami
0-1 22%0-0 17%0-2 16%
Spain2-0Cape Verde
xg 3.04–0.4588/10/3Atlantamodal 3-0
3-0 14%2-0 14%4-0 11%
Uruguay1-0Cape Verde
xg 1.66–0.4367/25/8Miami
1-0 20%2-0 17%0-0 13%
Spain2-0Saudi Arabia
xg 2.98–0.3888/9/2Atlanta
2-0 15%3-0 15%4-0 11%
Cape Verde0-0Saudi Arabia
xg 0.92–0.9632/35/34Houston
0-0 17%1-1 15%0-1 13%
Uruguay0-1Spain
xg 0.67–1.3517/31/52Guadalajara
0-1 17%0-0 15%1-1 13%
Group I
France1-0Senegal
xg 1.45–0.8251/29/20New York New Jersey
1-0 14%1-1 14%0-0 12%
Iraq0-1Norway
xg 0.59–2.039/21/71Bostonmodal 0-2
0-2 15%0-1 14%0-3 10%
Norway1-0Senegal
xg 1.37–1.1341/29/30New York New Jerseymodal 1-1
1-1 14%1-0 10%0-0 10%
France2-0Iraq
xg 2.16–0.4377/18/5Philadelphia
2-0 18%1-0 16%3-0 13%
Norway0-1France
xg 1.10–1.5526/28/46Bostonmodal 1-1
1-1 13%0-1 10%1-2 9%
Senegal1-0Iraq
xg 1.56–0.5461/27/12Toronto
1-0 18%2-0 15%0-0 13%
Group J
Argentina1-0Algeria
xg 1.77–0.5766/24/10Kansas City
1-0 16%2-0 15%1-1 11%
Austria1-0Jordan
xg 1.84–0.8360/24/15San Francisco Bay Areamodal 2-0
2-0 12%1-0 12%1-1 12%
Argentina1-0Austria
xg 1.67–0.5065/25/10Dallas
1-0 18%2-0 16%0-0 12%
Jordan1-2Algeria
xg 1.17–1.5827/27/46San Francisco Bay Areamodal 1-1
1-1 13%1-2 9%0-1 9%
Algeria0-1Austria
xg 0.95–1.4324/29/47Kansas Citymodal 1-1
1-1 14%0-1 12%0-0 11%
Jordan0-2Argentina
xg 0.40–2.863/11/87Dallas
0-2 16%0-3 15%0-4 11%
Group K
Portugal1-0DR Congo
xg 1.60–0.5562/26/11Houston
1-0 18%2-0 15%0-0 13%
Uzbekistan0-1Colombia
xg 0.60–1.5713/27/60Mexico City
0-1 17%0-2 14%0-0 13%
Portugal1-0Uzbekistan
xg 1.79–0.5267/23/9Houston
1-0 17%2-0 16%0-0 11%
Colombia1-0DR Congo
xg 1.60–0.5562/26/11Guadalajara
1-0 18%2-0 15%0-0 13%
Colombia1-2Portugal
xg 1.15–1.5627/27/46Miamimodal 1-1
1-1 13%1-2 9%0-1 9%
DR Congo0-0Uzbekistan
xg 0.62–0.7426/41/33Atlanta
0-0 27%0-1 18%1-0 15%
Group L
England1-0Croatia
xg 1.37–0.7351/30/19Dallas
1-0 16%1-1 14%0-0 14%
Ghana1-0Panama
xg 1.23–1.0639/31/30Torontomodal 1-1
1-1 15%0-0 12%1-0 11%
England1-0Ghana
xg 1.91–0.4971/22/8Bostonmodal 2-0
2-0 17%1-0 16%3-0 11%
Panama0-1Croatia
xg 0.76–1.8114/25/61Toronto
0-1 13%0-2 13%1-1 12%
Panama0-2England
xg 0.51–2.187/18/75New York New Jersey
0-2 16%0-1 14%0-3 12%
Croatia1-0Ghana
xg 1.60–0.7357/27/16Philadelphia
1-0 15%2-0 13%1-1 13%