Simulation
The tournament played out 20,000 times. Each run draws every match from the model's scoreline distribution; played group games are pinned, the rest simulated. Features: host ×0.33 + squad talent (FC26) + 2026 travel fatigue.
Champion probability
- 1Argentina24.9%
- 2France14.6%
- 3Spain8.1%
- 4England5.9%
- 5Brazil4.9%
- 6Norway4.7%
- 7Morocco4.2%
- 8Germany3.7%
- 9Switzerland3.6%
- 10Portugal3.1%
- 11Netherlands3.0%
- 12Japan2.6%
- 13Mexico2.1%
- 14Belgium2.0%
- 15Senegal1.9%
- 16Ecuador1.5%
- 17Uruguay1.4%
- 18Egypt1.0%
- 19Colombia0.9%
- 20Paraguay0.9%
- 21Iran0.9%
- 22Australia0.7%
- 23South Korea0.7%
- 24Croatia0.6%
- 25Turkey0.6%
- 26Ivory Coast0.4%
- 27Austria0.3%
- 28Canada0.2%
- 29Sweden0.2%
- 30Scotland0.1%
- 31Tunisia0.1%
- 32United States0.0%
- 33Algeria0.0%
- 34Uzbekistan0.0%
- 35Czech Republic0.0%
- 36DR Congo0.0%
- 37Saudi Arabia0.0%
- 38Panama0.0%
- 39Iraq0.0%
- 40South Africa0.0%
- 41Cape Verde0.0%
- 42Ghana0.0%
- 43New Zealand0.0%
- 44Jordan0.0%
- 45Bosnia and Herzegovina0.0%
- 46Qatar0.0%
- 47Haiti0.0%
- 48Curaçao0.0%
How far they run
Share of the 20,000 sims reaching each stage.
| Team | Adv | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArgentinaJ | 99% | 61.1% | 47.8% | 34.4% | 24.9% |
| FranceI | 94% | 49.1% | 35.7% | 24.2% | 14.6% |
| SpainH | 99% | 48.7% | 32.7% | 17.1% | 8.1% |
| EnglandL | 97% | 40.0% | 23.2% | 11.2% | 5.9% |
| BrazilC | 98% | 39.6% | 20.3% | 10.1% | 4.9% |
| NorwayI | 85% | 30.9% | 18.4% | 10.0% | 4.7% |
| MoroccoC | 95% | 36.3% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 4.2% |
| GermanyE | 98% | 27.9% | 16.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% |
| SwitzerlandB | 99% | 37.0% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| PortugalK | 94% | 35.4% | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| NetherlandsF | 90% | 33.7% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| JapanF | 84% | 29.3% | 13.3% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
Model vs market
Champion price gaps — the model's edge over the Polymarket price (display only, not a model input).